Thursday, June 18, 2009

Could the Iranian Interior Ministry Be This Dumb?

as we have seen over the past week, it is difficult to tell what is actually going on in iran. did mousavi win? the residents of tehran certainly think so. did ahmadinejad win? certainly possible as well, although i sincerely doubt that if he did that he won by the margins suggested by the "official" election returns. that was their first mistake: if you are going to rig an election, at least make it believable. their second mistake was overconfidence and a lack of understanding how new technology is changing the information landscape. no longer can authoritarian governments control what their people read, see, and hear. sure, their control can be exerted to a degree, but as we are seeing, technology is trumping state control of the media.

if the letter below is to be believed, this will be the third, and fatal mistake, of the current iranian regime. i, however, have trouble believing the letter. how could they be that stupid? i mean, we have seen how stupid this government can be, but this just seems like a little too stupid.

imagine if a memo was uncovered during the florida recount from katherine harris to jeb bush stating that per his request W would be declared the winner, despite al gore winning the state, and here are the real totals, just as an FYI (this is actually kinda what happened, but there is no "smoking gun" memo to the point). how stupid would that have been? i mean, really! now, the mechanics of our society are more open, so the possibility of such a memo being exposed are much, much greater here than in iran, but i guess we can't assume that the iranian government wouldn't have been arrogant enough to produce such a document. and even so, even if they thought there was zero percent chance of this thing getting out, you still don't put this down on paper! its just a little too convenient to believe, but if it is true, RIP the iranian islamic republic (at least in its current form).

i also would not put it past the opposition to forge such a letter. the iranian public would be very susceptible to believing such a document, so i would like to view it with a grain of salt.
Interior Ministry's letter to the Supreme Leader

Salaam Aleikum.

Regarding your concerns for the 10th presidential elections and due to your orders for Mr Ahmedinejad to be elected President, in this sensitive time, all matters have been organised in such a way that the results of the election will be in line with the revolution and the Islamic system. The following result will be declared to the people and all planning should be put in force to prevent any possible action from the opposition, and all party leaders and election candidates are under intense surveillance. Therefore, for your information only, I am telling you the actual results as follows:

Mirhossein Mousavi: 19,075,623

Mehdi Karroubi: 13,387,104

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: 5,698,417

Mohsen Rezai: 38,716

(signed on behalf of the minister)

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